Models of Imperfect Information in Politics

Author: R. Calvert
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1136459693
Format: PDF
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Surveys the models of political phenomena that incorporate imperfect information, concentrating on 'full-rationality' approaches as opposed to bounded rationality models.

Games Information and Politics

Author: Scott Gates
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 0472027530
Format: PDF
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To study the strategic interaction of individuals, we can use game theory. Despite the long history shared by game theory and political science, many political scientists remain unaware of the exciting game theoretic techniques that have been developed over the years. As a result they use overly simple games to illustrate complex processes. Games, Information, and Politics is written for political scientists who have an interest in game theory but really do not understand how it can be used to improve our understanding of politics. To address this problem, Gates and Humes write for scholars who have little or no training in formal theory and demonstrate how game theoretic analysis can be applied to politics. They apply game theoretic models to three subfields of political science: American politics, comparative politics, and international relations. They demonstrate how game theory can be applied to each of these subfields by drawing from three distinct pieces of research. By drawing on examples from current research projects the authors use real research problems--not hypothetical questions--to develop their discussion of various techniques and to demonstrate how to apply game theoretic models to help answer important political questions. Emphasizing the process of applying game theory, Gates and Humes clear up some common misperceptions about game theory and show how it can be used to improve our understanding of politics. Games, Information, and Politics is written for scholars interested in understanding how game theory is used to model strategic interactions. It will appeal to sociologists and economists as well as political scientists. Scott Gates is Assistant Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University. Brian D. Humes is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Foundations of Info Metrics

Author: Amos Golan
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199349525
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Info-metrics is the science of modeling, reasoning, and drawing inferences under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. It is at the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. It plays an important role in helping make informeddecisions even when there is inadequate or incomplete information because it provides a framework to process available information with minimal reliance on assumptions that cannot be validated.In this pioneering book, Amos Golan, a leader in info-metrics, focuses on unifying information processing, modeling and inference within a single constrained optimization framework. Foundations of Info-Metrics provides an overview of modeling and inference, rather than a problem specific model, andprogresses from the simple premise that information is often insufficient to provide a unique answer for decisions we wish to make. Each decision, or solution, is derived from the available input information along with a choice of inferential procedure. The book contains numerous multidisciplinary applications and case studies, which demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the framework in real world settings. Examples include initial diagnosis at an emergency room, optimal dose decisions, election forecasting, network and informationaggregation, weather pattern analyses, portfolio allocation, strategy inference for interacting entities, incorporation of prior information, option pricing, and modeling an interacting social system. Graphical representations illustrate how results can be visualized while exercises and problem setsfacilitate extensions. This book is this designed to be accessible for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners across the disciplines.

Positive Political Economy I

Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780415269414
Format: PDF, Mobi
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The emergence of 'positive' political economy has been one of the most dramatic developments in contemporary economics and these volumes include some of the foundational works in this area.

Decision Theory with Imperfect Information

Author: Rafik A Aliev
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814611050
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states. This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics. Contents: Theories of Decision Making under UncertaintyFuzzy Logic and Approximate ReasoningPreferences FrameworkImperfect Decision-Relevant InformationUncertainty Measures in Decision MakingFuzzy Logic-Based Decision Theory with Imperfect InformationHierarchical Models for Decision Making with Imperfect InformationDecision Making Model without UtilityBehavioral Decision Making with Combined States under Imperfect InformationDecision Making under Unprecisiated Imperfect InformationThe General Theory of DecisionsSimulations and Applications Readership: Professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics. Keywords:Decision Making;Behavioral Decisions;General Decision Theory;Combined State;Vague Preferences;Imperfect Information;Uncertainty Measure;Fuzzy Geometry

Federalism and Subsidiarity

Author: James E. Fleming
Publisher: NYU Press
ISBN: 1479875554
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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In Federalism and Subsidiarity, a distinguished interdisciplinary group of scholars in political science, law, and philosophy address the application and interaction of the concept of federalism within law and government. What are the best justifications for and conceptions of federalism? What are the most useful criteria for deciding what powers should be allocated to national governments and what powers reserved to state or provincial governments? What are the implications of the principle of subsidiarity for such questions? What should be the constitutional standing of cities in federations? Do we need to “remap” federalism to reckon with the emergence of translocal and transnational organizations with porous boundaries that are not reflected in traditional jurisdictional conceptions? Examining these questions and more, this latest installation in the NOMOS series sheds new light on the allocation of power within federations.

Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era

Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119349834
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.

Macroeconomic Policy Credibility and Politics

Author: T. Persson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135645590
Format: PDF
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Uses a game theoretic approach to explore which economic policies are 'credible' and 'politically feasible', questions that had eluded traditional macroeconomic approaches.

Principled Agents

Author: Timothy Besley
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 019927150X
Format: PDF
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What is good government? Why do some governments fail? How do you implement political accountability in practice? What incentives do you need to put in place to ensure that politicians and public servants act in the public interest and not their own? These questions and many more are addressed in Timothy Besley's intriguing Lindahl lectures. Economic analyses of government usually divide into two broad camps. One which emphasizes government as a force for public good that can regulate markets, distribute resources and generally work towards improving the lives of its citizens. The other sees government as driven by private interests, susceptible to those with the power to influence its decisions and failing to incentivize its officials to act for the greater public good. This book adopts a middle way between the two extremes, the Publius approach, which recognizes the potential for government to act for the public good but also accepts the fact that things often go wrong. It shares the view that there are certain institutional preconditions for effective government but then proceed to examine exactly what those preconditions are. Timothy Besley emphasises that it is not just about designing an appropriate institutional framework but also about understanding the way incentives work and the process by which the political class is selected.

Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy

Author: Agustin Roitman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455257281
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We show evidence suggesting that uncertainty about the underlying stochastic process is present in commodity prices. In addition, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with informational frictions, which explicitly considers uncertainty about the nature of shocks. When formulating expectations, the economy assigns some probability to the shocks being temporary even if they are actually permanent. Parameter instability in the stochastic process implies that optimal saving levels (debt holdings) should be higher (lower) compared to a process with fixed parameters. Imperfect information about the nature of shocks matters when commodity GDP shares are high. Thus, economic policies based on misperception of the underlying regime can lead to substantial over/under saving with important associated costs.