Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things Second Edition

Author: Ray Fair
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804778027
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Download Now
"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

The American Campaign Second Edition

Author: James E. Campbell
Publisher: Texas A&M University Press
ISBN: 9781585446285
Format: PDF, ePub
Download Now
Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell’s “theory of the predictable campaign,” incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell’s cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists’ ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides: a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes; a historical summary of many of America’s important presidential elections; a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.

Predicting the Next President

Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN: 1442212128
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download Now
In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

Who Will Be the Next President

Author: Alexander S. Belenky
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319446967
Format: PDF, Mobi
Download Now
This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book addresses the peculiarities of the current presidential election system not yet addressed in other publications. It argues that any rules for electing a President that may have a chance to replace the current ones should provide an equal representation of states as equal members of the Union, and of the nation as a whole. This book analyzes the National Popular Vote plan and shows that this plan may violate the Supreme Court decisions on the equality of votes cast in statewide popular elections held to choose state electors. That is, the National Popular Vote plan may violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The book proposes a new election system in which the will of the states and the will of the nation as a whole are determined by direct popular elections for President and Vice President in the 50 states and in D.C. This system a) would elect President a candidate who is the choice of both the nation as a whole and of the states as equal members of the Union, b) would let the current system elect a President only if the nation as a whole and the states as equal members of the Union fail to agree on a common candidate, and c) would encourage the candidates to campaign nationwide. The second edition has been updated to include a proposal on how to make established non-major party presidential candidates and independent candidates welcome participants in national televised presidential debates with the major-party candidates.

The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency

Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780819187512
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download Now
Forget the polls. Dismiss the pundits. Ignore the twists and turns of the campaign trail. As Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell demonstrate in the Thirteen Keys To The Presidency, America's presidential elections do not work the way most people think they do.

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226922162
Format: PDF, Mobi
Download Now
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

The 2012 Presidential Election

Author: Amnon Cavari
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442226498
Format: PDF, Kindle
Download Now
Analyses of the 2012 presidential election are already emerging, with various retrospectives, accounts, and predictions in the works. This volume includes some of the most recognized scholars in the field and innovative younger scholars who provide a fresh perspective on the election. It is a diverse and award winning group, including established and respected names in presidency studies, political psychology, and election forecasting.

Do Campaigns Matter

Author: Thomas Holbrook
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 9780803973459
Format: PDF, Docs
Download Now
A thorough examination of the impact of campaign politics on presidential elections in the United States is presented in this book. Using actual election results and empirical evidence, the author also incorporates data on additional factors such as media coverage, the impact of nominating conventions on public opinion, presidential debates, and other events such as staff shake-ups, endorsements and scandals. In so doing, Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion and, ultimately, influencing outcomes.

The Case for Impeachment

Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 0062696831
Format: PDF
Download Now
NATIONAL BESTSELLER “Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year.” —The Hill "It is still striking to see the full argument unfold and realize that you don’t have to be a zealot to imagine some version of it happening…Lies. Abuse of power. Treason. Crimes against humanity. Martial law. Lichtman throws everything Trump’s way.." —Washington Post Professor Allan J. Lichtman, who has correctly forecasted thirty years of presidential outcomes, makes the case for impeaching the 45th president of the United States, Donald J. Trump In the fall of 2016, Distinguished Professor of History at American University Allan J. Lichtman made headlines when he predicted that Donald J. Trump would defeat the heavily favored Democrat, Hillary Clinton, to win the presidential election. Now, in clear, nonpartisan terms, Lichtman lays out the reasons Congress could remove Trump from the Oval Office: his ties to Russia before and after the election, the complicated financial conflicts of interest at home and abroad, and his abuse of executive authority. The Case for Impeachment also offers a fascinating look at presidential impeachments throughout American history, including the often-overlooked story of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment, details about Richard Nixon’s resignation, and Bill Clinton’s hearings. Lichtman shows how Trump exhibits many of the flaws (and more) that have doomed past presidents. As the Nixon Administration dismissed the reporting of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein as “character assassination” and “a vicious abuse of the journalistic process,” Trump has attacked the “dishonest media,” claiming, “the press should be ashamed of themselves.” Historians, legal scholars, and politicians alike agree: we are in politically uncharted waters—the durability of our institutions is being undermined and the public’s confidence in them is eroding, threatening American democracy itself. Most citizens—politics aside—want to know where the country is headed. Lichtman argues, with clarity and power, that for Donald Trump’s presidency, smoke has become fire.

Successful Business Intelligence Second Edition

Author: Cindi Howson
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071809198
Format: PDF, Kindle
Download Now
Revised to cover new advances in business intelligence—big data, cloud, mobile, and more—this fully updated bestseller reveals the latest techniques to exploit BI for the highest ROI. “Cindi has created, with her typical attention to details that matter, a contemporary forward-looking guide that organizations could use to evaluate existing or create a foundation for evolving business intelligence / analytics programs. The book touches on strategy, value, people, process, and technology, all of which must be considered for program success. Among other topics, the data, data warehousing, and ROI comments were spot on. The ‘technobabble’ chapter was brilliant!” —Bill Frank, Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing Program Manager, Johnson & Johnson “If you want to be an analytical competitor, you’ve got to go well beyond business intelligence technology. Cindi Howson has wrapped up the needed advice on technology, organization, strategy, and even culture in a neat package. It’s required reading for quantitatively oriented strategists and the technologists who support them.” —Thomas H. Davenport, President’s Distinguished Professor, Babson College and co-author, Competing on Analytics “Cindi has created an exceptional, authoritative description of the end-to-end business intelligence ecosystem. This is a great read for those who are just trying to better understand the business intelligence space, as well as for the seasoned BI practitioner.” —Sully McConnell, Vice President, Business Intelligence and Information Management, Time Warner Cable “Cindi’s book succinctly yet completely lays out what it takes to deliver BI successfully. IT and business leaders will benefit from Cindi’s deep BI experience, which she shares through helpful, real-world definitions, frameworks, examples, and stories. This is a must-read for companies engaged in – or considering – BI.” —Barbara Wixom, PhD, Principal Research Scientist, MIT Sloan Center for Information Systems Research Expanded to cover the latest advances in business intelligence such as big data, cloud, mobile, visual data discovery, and in-memory computing, this fully updated bestseller by BI guru Cindi Howson provides cutting-edge techniques to exploit BI for maximum value. Successful Business Intelligence: Unlock the Value of BI & Big Data, Second Edition describes best practices for an effective BI strategy. Find out how to: Garner executive support to foster an analytic culture Align the BI strategy with business goals Develop an analytic ecosystem to exploit data warehousing, analytic appliances, and Hadoop for the right BI workload Continuously improve the quality, breadth, and timeliness of data Find the relevance of BI for everyone in the company Use agile development processes to deliver BI capabilities and improvements at the pace of business change Select the right BI tools to meet user and business needs Measure success in multiple ways Embrace innovation, promote successes and applications, and invest in training Monitor your evolution and maturity across various factors for impact Exclusive industry survey data and real-world case studies from Medtronic, Macy’s, 1-800 CONTACTS, The Dow Chemical Company, Netflix, Constant Contact, and other companies show successful BI initiatives in action. From Moneyball to Nate Silver, BI and big data have permeated our cultural, political, and economic landscape. This timely, up-to-date guide reveals how to plan and deploy an agile, state-of-the-art BI solution that links insight to action and delivers a sustained competitive advantage.